Case studies

What we publish, including the runs that didn't hold up

Three real optimization runs against public repos — one verified, one blocked before it could ship, one discounted by our own verification discipline before it ever became a claim. We publish all three the same way, because a guarantee only means something if the machinery behind it is willing to throw out a number that doesn't survive contact with reality.

VERIFIED +14.1%

webpack/webpack

The estimate said +45.6%. Ten interleaved runs on real GitHub-hosted CI measured +14.1%, statistically significant. The change was real; the estimate ran 3× hot — and the measurement caught it.

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REAL, UNVERIFIED

angular/angular

A genuine, load-bearing opportunity confirmed across 5 independent real runs — but the verification path is structurally blocked (no fork access to the triggering branch or the required secrets). Held back rather than shipped on an estimate alone.

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DISCOUNTED +45.8%

payloadcms/payload

A clean, webpack-tier estimate that looked identical to a real win on paper — until we checked it against the repo's actual structure. Half was unshippable to any fork, the other half was already sharded 108 ways. The discipline killed it before it became a promise.

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